At the same time, tensions with the EU persist, and uncertainty around upcoming tariffs is growing. For Swedish companies, this evolving landscape presents both risks and opportunities. As budget spending shifts, opportunities arise for Swedish companies in defence, security, and supply chains that are less dependent on China.

Current tariff overview:
Country/Coverage  Tariff  Date active  Broad exemptions
Mexico 25% 4 March  Imports under USMCA
Canada 25% 4 March  Imports under USMCA
China 30% 14 May Product exemptions
China, De minimis shipments (under USD 800) 120% of their value or USD 100 per item (USD 200 per item after 1 June) 2 May  
Reciprocal - Universal 10% 5 April Product exemptions
Reciprocal - EU 20% July Product exemptions
Reciprocal - Other countries 11%-50% July Product exemptions
Steel & aluminium 25% 12 March Specific exemptions
Automotive 25% 3 April TBD
Pharmaceuticals TBD TBD  
Semiconductors TBD TBD  
Aircrafts and parts TBD TBD  
US–UK deal announced, more to come

The US and UK have agreed on the outline of a limited trade framework – the first deal announced since blanket tariffs were introduced last month. While the agreement lowers tariffs on up to 100,000 British luxury cars and removes duties on steel and aluminium, most UK imports will still face the 10% baseline rate. The pact does not yet constitute a full trade deal and would require further negotiation and likely congressional ratification.

With over 100 deals still needed before the 90-day pause expires in July, officials say this agreement is a “template” for upcoming negotiations. However, the short timeline and lack of congressional involvement so far raise questions about how – and when – these deals will be implemented.

China trade talks yield 90-day tariff reduction

The US and China have agreed to reduce reciprocal tariffs to 10% for 90 days, following talks in Geneva. While not a comprehensive trade deal, both sides called it substantial progress and a foundation for further negotiations later this summer. For now, the effective US tariff on Chinese goods remains at 30%. In April, China’s exports to the US fell by over 20%, while overall exports rose 8.1% as firms shifted shipments to Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America.

EU prepares broad retaliatory measures

The European Commission is consulting on EUR 95 billion in potential counter-tariffs in response to US reciprocal tariffs and is preparing WTO disputes. Targeted US goods include:

  • Aircraft, autos, medical devices, and spirits
  • Agricultural and industrial goods across nearly 5,000 product lines

Negotiations are ongoing, but officials warn that if no resolution is reached before July, a significant escalation is likely. If talks fail, Swedish companies dependent on both US imports and exports could be directly affected. The EU continues to push for a negotiated outcome, but companies should prepare for broader disruptions to transatlantic trade flows this summer.

Budget shifts signal opportunity in security & defence

The President’s initial 2026 US budget reflects a major reallocation of federal priorities – but remains subject to congressional approval, making the outlook uncertain in the near term. Still, the current proposal signals where funding momentum is headed:

  • USD 100 billion in new defence spending 
  • USD 69 billion for border security and immigration enforcement
  • Cuts to NIH, renewable energy, DEI, and climate programmes

For Swedish firms in defence, surveillance, and secure infrastructure, these priorities may open new procurement opportunities.

What to watch next week

Public comments are now open until 3 June for the new Section 232 investigation into imports of commercial aircraft and jet engines. The outcome could lead to further tariffs if imports are deemed a national security concern. Swedish companies active in the supply chain may be affected. However, if the US succeeds in reducing import reliance, new business opportunities may arise in the domestic commercial aircraft, jet engines, and parts sector for local suppliers.

Get in touch

Business Sweden has extensive experience in tariff scenario analyses, localisation evaluations, and supplier assessments. If you need support in assessing your supply chain or navigating the impact of these tariffs on your US operations, please contact Johan Karlberg or Peter Ekdahl.

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