The Export Managers’ Index (EMI) which monitors views and reflects sentiment among Swedish exporters of goods and services, fell back following the record level of the previous quarter. EMI dropped by 4.8 points to 66.1 in the third quarter, from 70.9 in the second quarter.
The fact that the index continues to be well above the 50-mark – the dividing line between optimism and pessimism – indicates that export companies have an optimistic view of export development.
Both the current and forecast subindices fell but remain at high levels. EMI current dropped by 5.8 points to 69.2 in the third quarter, from 75.0 in the second quarter. EMI forecast, which is the subindex for the forward-looking issues, fell by 3.7 points to 63.0 in the third quarter, from 66.7 in the second quarter.
The most notable change in the survey can be seen in the subindex for expected export demand where assessments differ markedly for the different regions. The index fell for all regions except South America, but there are considerable gaps.
The index for expected export demand from Asia plunged by 27.5 points to 41.9 in the third quarter, from 69.4 in the previous quarter. This is the lowest recorded level since the survey first began in 2007. Although assessments for Europe and North America dampened slightly, the index here remains at high levels. This indicates that export companies have a strongly optimistic view of expected export demand from these regions over the next three months.
In all, we can observe that optimistic sentiment remains among export managers despite the storm clouds. The global economy is continuing to recover as the pandemic abates. But the spread of coronavirus is still not under control.
The outlook for North America and Europe is considerably better than Asia where the situation has worsened in several countries. This creates uncertainty and could potentially delay the global recovery.
Download the report for a full overview of the results.
The next Export Managers’ Index will be published 11 November 2021.
About The analysis
Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a quarterly index showing the current mood of Swedish exporting companies as well as their near-future outlook for exports to the regions of the world.
The index is a measure of companies’ perceived export demand in the market, where a level above 50 indicates market expansion and a level below 50 indicates market contraction. The index can be split into subindices for current and forecast export demand, and contains information on export sales, expected regional demand and perceived order stock.
The survey is conducted by Statistics Sweden (SCB). Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of the development of Sweden’s economy.
Export Managers' index Q3 2021
Publishing dates 2021
Below are the Swedish publishing dates of the EMI report. The English version is available on the website a few days after.
11 February: EMI Q1
12 May: EMI Q2
26 August: EMI Q3
11 November: EMI Q4