Business Sweden's Export Managers' Index (EMI), which monitors views and reflects sentiment among Swedish exporters of goods and services, continued its downward trend for 2022 which began with a high 70.9 in the first quarter. EMI is now at a more normal level, having dropped by 5 points to 52.8 in the fourth quarter, from 57.8 in the previous quarter.
Gloomy predictions for the next three months drove the overall decline of EMI which has dampened sentiment. While the EMI current subindex only fell by 1.6 points in the survey, EMI forecast – the subindex for the forward-looking issues – dropped by as much as 8.2 points to 44.3 in the fourth quarter, from 52.5 in the third quarter. Several forward-looking subindices are now well below the 50-mark.
The slowdown is particularly palpable in Western Europe and North America which are expected to enter into a mild recession in 2023. The subindex for expected export demand from Western Europe fell by 10.9 points to 40.3, from 51.2. The index for North America fell even more sharply by 11.4 points to 48.1 in the fourth quarter, from 59.5 in the previous quarter.
The EMI indicates that export companies have a gloomy view of expected export demand from all regions except South America and Asia. This is in line with Business Sweden’s assessment of the global economic outlook which points to a temporary global slump next year.
Download the report for a full overview of the survey results here.
The next Export Managers’ Index will be published on 9 February 2023.
Export manager's index
About The analysis
Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a quarterly index showing the current mood of Swedish exporting companies as well as their near-future outlook for exports to the regions of the world.
The index is a measure of companies’ perceived export demand in the market, where a level above 50 indicates market expansion and a level below 50 indicates market contraction. The index can be split into subindices for current and forecast export demand, and contains information on export sales, expected regional demand and perceived order stock.
The survey is conducted by Statistics Sweden (SCB). Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of the development of Sweden’s economy.
Publishing dates 2023
Below are the Swedish publishing dates of the EMI report. The English version is available on the website a few days after.
9 February: EMI Q1
12 May: EMI Q2
25 August: EMI Q3
10 November: EMI Q4