The Export Managers’ Index (EMI) which monitors views and reflects sentiment among Swedish exporters of goods and services, rose slightly in the fourth quarter following a drop in the third quarter. However, EMI did not regain the record level of 70.9 seen in the second quarter of this year.   

EMI increased by 1.5 points to 67.6 in the fourth quarter, up from 66.1 in the third quarter. The fact that the index continues to be well above the 50-mark – the dividing line between optimism and pessimism – indicates that export companies have an optimistic view of export development. 

The fourth quarter uptick in the EMI was primarily driven by the current subindex which rose by 2.1 points to 71.3, from 69.2 in the third quarter. At the same time, EMI forecast – the subindex for the forward looking issues – increased by just 0.8 points to 63.8.

The most notable survey results were the record high levels seen in the indices for export order stocks and profitability of current export sales, as well as an unanticipated rise in the views of expected export sales from Western Europe.

The subindex for the assessment of export order stocks hit a new record high of 73.2. A similar development was seen in the subindex for profitability of current export sales which rose to a record level of 75.5 in the fourth quarter.   

The subindex for expected export demand from Asia made a significant recovery in the fourth quarter, jumping by as much as 11.2 points to 53.1, from a record low 41.9 in the previous quarter. This is likely due to the reduced spread of infections in the region and the abating disruption to supply chains.    

In all, we can conclude that optimistic sentiment among export managers has received an additional boost and that the storm clouds have seemingly dispersed, at least for the coming three months.

Download the report for a full overview of the results.  

The next Export Managers’ Index will be published 11 February 2022.

Export manager's index

Export manager's index Q4 2021
PDF - 1 mb
Weighted timeseries - EMI Q4 2021
XLSX - 56 kb
 
About The analysis

Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a quarterly index showing the current mood of Swedish exporting companies as well as their near-future outlook for exports to the regions of the world.

The index is a measure of companies’ perceived export demand in the market, where a level above 50 indicates market expansion and a level below 50 indicates market contraction. The index can be split into subindices for current and forecast export demand, and contains information on export sales, expected regional demand and perceived order stock.

The survey is conducted by Statistics Sweden (SCB). Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of the development of Sweden’s economy.

Publishing dates 2022

Below are the Swedish publishing dates of the EMI report. The English version is available on the website a few days after. 

11 February: EMI Q1 
12 May: EMI Q2
26 August: EMI Q3 
11 November: EMI Q4 


Previous analyses

2021
Export Managers’ Index Q3 2021
PDF - 2 mb
Export Managers' Index Q2 2021
PDF - 4 mb
Export Managers' Index Q1 2021
PDF - 2 mb

 

2020
Export Managers' Index Q4 2020
PDF - 1 mb
EXPORT MANAGERS INDEX Q3 2020
PDF - 1 mb
EXPORT MANAGERS INDEX, Q2 2020
PDF - 1 mb
Export Managers Index, Q1 2020
PDF - 3 mb

 

2019
Export Managers Index, Q4 2019
PDF - 1 mb
Export Managers Index, Q3 2019
PDF - 786 kb
Export Managers Index, Q2 2019
PDF - 933 kb
Export Managers Index, Q1 2019
PDF - 1 mb

 

2018
Export Managers Index, Q4 2018
PDF - 1 mb
Export Managers Index, Q3 2018
PDF - 1 mb
Export Managers Index, Q2 2018
PDF - 978 kb
Export Managers Index, Q1 2018
PDF - 7 mb

 

2017
Export Managers Index, Q4 2017
PDF - 1 mb
Export Managers Index, Q3 2017
PDF - 1 mb
Export Managers Index, Q2 2017
PDF - 647 kb
Export Managers Index, Q1 2017
PDF - 776 kb