Business Sweden's Export Managers' Index (EMI), which monitors views and reflects sentiment among Swedish exporters of goods and services, continued to fall in the fourth quarter. EMI fell by 2.3 points to 44.4, from 46.7 in the previous quarter.
The decline was driven by a considerable drop in the EMI current subindex, which fell by 6.4 points. EMI forecast – the subindex for the forward-looking issues – rose by 1.7 points to 44.5 in the fourth quarter survey. Both subindices are now below the 50-mark which indicates that export companies have a gloomy view of export development.
The subindex for expected export demand from Asia made a strong recovery and jumped by as much as 15.2 points. Conversely, the index for North America plummeted by 9.1 points and fell below the 50-mark.
Views of both current export order stocks and export sales took a hit in the fourth quarter, but there are bright spots on the horizon. The subindices reflecting views of expected export sales and profitability of export sales increased and are close to the 50-mark which indicates normality.
Uncertainty remains elevated but hasn’t picked up. The central banks are clearly approaching the end of their tightening cycles.
Download the report for a full overview of the survey results.
The next Export Managers’ Index will be published on 8 February 2024.
Export manager's index
ABOUT THE ANALYSIS
Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a quarterly index showing the current mood of Swedish exporting companies as well as their near-future outlook for exports to the regions of the world.
The index is a measure of companies’ perceived export demand in the market, where a level above 50 indicates market expansion and a level below 50 indicates market contraction. The index can be split into subindices for current and forecast export demand, and contains information on export sales, expected regional demand and perceived order stock.
The survey is conducted by Statistics Sweden (SCB). Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of the development of Sweden’s economy.
Publishing dates 2024
Below are the Swedish publishing dates for the EMI report. The English version is available on the website a few days later.
8 February: EMI Q1
9 May: EMI Q2
29 August: EMI Q3
7 November: EMI Q4