The prevailing trade and geopolitical uncertainty is weighing on Swedish export companies. This is revealed by Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index (EMI) for the fourth quarter, which fell by 1.6 points to 49.4, from 51.0 in the third quarter.
The fact that the index is close to the 50-mark – the dividing line between optimism and pessimism – indicates that roughly the same amount of export companies believe in a strengthening as in a weakening of export performance.
The decline in EMI was mainly driven by companies’ views of current export development, where the current subindex fell by 3.0 points to 45.9. EMI forecast – the subindex for the forward-looking issues – fell marginally by 0.2 points to 52.9 in the fourth quarter survey.
Export managers’ views of expected export demand have once again dampened for most regions despite the rising optimism seen in the previous quarter. The index for expected export demand from Western Europe fell by 3.3 points to 50.2 in the fourth quarter. North America fell back by 7.3 points to 45.0, and Asia and Oceania plummeted by 14.3 points to 54.5.
The chilly sentiment is in line with Business Sweden’s assessment that the new US tariffs will dampen global growth and the export market well into 2026.
Download the analysis for the full overview of the survey results.
The next Export Managers' Index will be published on February 5, 2026.
Export manager's index:
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ABOUT THE ANALYSIS
Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a quarterly index showing the current mood of Swedish exporting companies as well as their near-future outlook for exports to the regions of the world.
The index is a measure of companies’ perceived export demand in the market, where a level above 50 indicates market expansion and a level below 50 indicates market contraction. The index can be split into subindices for current and forecast export demand, and contains information on export sales, expected regional demand and perceived order stock.
The survey is conducted by Statistics Sweden (SCB). Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of the development of Sweden’s economy.
Publishing dates 2026
Below are the Swedish publishing dates for the EMI report. The English version is available on the website a few days later.
5 February: EMI Q1
8 May: EMI Q2
28 August: EMI Q3
6 November: EMI Q4
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