The 90-day tariff pause expired, and uncertainty around US trade policy continues as 1 August is set as the deadline for new import duties. While only a few countries have reached agreements, over 20 tariff letters have now been issued, and sector-specific measures on copper and pharmaceuticals add further pressure. A new US-Vietnam deal also introduces strict transshipment rules, underscoring broader efforts to curb indirect Chinese exports. 

 

Current tariff overview:
Country/Coverage  Tariff  Date active  General exemptions
Mexico 25% (30%) 4 March (1 August)  Imports under USMCA
Canada 25% (35%) 4 March (1 August) Imports under USMCA
China 30% 14 May Product exemptions
China, De minimis shipments (under USD 800) 54% of their value or USD 100 per item 14 May  
Reciprocal - Universal* 10% 5 April Product exemptions
Reciprocal - EU 30% 1 August  Product exemptions
Reciprocal - Other countries 11%-50% 1 August  Product exemptions
Copper 50% 1 August   
Steel & aluminium 50% 4 June Specific exemptions
Automotive 25% 3 April TBD
Pharmaceuticals 20% (200%) TBD (2026)  
Semiconductors TBD TBD  
Aircraft and parts TBD TBD   
*For Vietnam and UK deals apply 


Few deals, new tariffs: next deadline 1 August 

As the July 9 deadline for President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause expired, the White House narrowed its trade focus and moved forward with issuing tariff notices. The original ambition of securing 90 trade deals in 90 days has now shifted to just a small group of key agreements.  

Deals with the UK and Vietnam have been announced while higher tariffs on China are paused until 12 August. Countries without deals will likely face new tariff rates – ranging from 10% to 50% or more – starting next month. Key trading partners, such as Japan, have not accepted US demands for rice market access, making a deal unlikely before the 1 August deadline.  

A total of 21 tariff letters were issued by Trump ahead of the 9 July deadline, including to Japan, South Korea, the EU, the Philippines, Iraq, Moldova, and others, with additional notices expected. 

  • Threat of 30% tariff on EU: Negotiations with the European Union continue, with some optimism for a near-term deal. Trump released a letter to the EU on 11 July, stating that a 30% tariff will come in effect 1 August if no other deal is reached.  
  • Trump targets Canada with 35% tariffs: A new letter to Canadian PM Mark Carney outlines a tariff hike from 25% to 35% on Canadian imports, effective 1 August, citing fentanyl concerns and trade imbalances. Similarly, Trump is threatening a 30% tariff on Mexican goods.  
  • Tensions rise with BRICS nations as 10% tariff is levied:  President Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from BRICS nations plus a steep 50% tariff on Brazil – amid sovereignty disputes and political disagreements. 

While Trump has taken a hard line, officials such as Treasury Secretary Bessent have hinted that “good faith” negotiations could be allowed to stretch slightly beyond the deadline. 

 
New Section 232 tariffs for copper and pharmaceuticals 

The US administration has launched or concluded Section 232 investigations citing national security risks for two new sectors: 

  • Copper: A new 50% tariff has been threatened for all copper imports from 1 August. While intended to support US mining, analysts warn it will raise costs without significantly boosting domestic output due to limited smelting capacity and slow permitting for new mines. 
  • Pharmaceuticals: A 20% tariff on foreign-made pharmaceuticals has been announced. While moving commercial-scale manufacturing to US sites can take 4-5 years, Trump has already threatened to raise the tariff to 200% within 12-18 months. The US currently imports about 40% of finished pharmaceuticals, with India and China being major suppliers. Countries like Australia and Ireland also face exposure as they rely heavily on the US market for pharma exports. 

These tariffs are distinct from country-specific levies and are expected to trigger pushback from partners reliant on US market access in critical sectors. 

 

Transshipment crackdown: China indirectly targeted via Vietnam 

The US-Vietnam trade agreement finalised this week includes a clause aimed at transshipped goods – particularly those originating from China. 

Key terms: 

  • Vietnamese goods will face a 20% tariff, lower than the 46% in the 9 April proposal. 
  • Goods flagged as transshipped (e.g. labeled “Made in Vietnam” but primarily sourced from China) will face a 40% tariff. 
  • In exchange, Vietnam agreed to drop all tariffs on US imports and to step up enforcement against fraudulent transshipment. 
  • US ocean imports from China fell 28.3% year-over-year in June, while imports from Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Indonesia surged, indicating a shift in sourcing or rerouting. 

The clause is part of a broader US effort to tighten country-of-origin enforcement and curb Chinese transshipment practices. China has vowed to retaliate if its interests are undermined. Swedish companies with supply chains in China or Southeast Asia – particularly those exploring alternative routing options – should closely monitor how these measures may impact sourcing strategies and compliance requirements. 

 

Continued uncertainty for Swedish exporters 

Swedish companies may face rising costs and compliance hurdles ahead of the 1 August tariff deadline, especially if no EU deal is reached. Industry-specific tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals could directly impact firms in manufacturing, industrial equipment, and life sciences.  

Staying informed on cost implications and exploring supply chain diversification will be key in navigating the new trade landscape. As President Trump has reiterated that no tariffs will apply if companies manufacture in the US, supply chain and localisation strategies will become increasingly important to mitigate risks. 

 

What to watch this week
  • EU negotiations: Will the US and EU finalise a tariff deal before the 1 August deadline? 
  • New tariff letters: Monitor the situation as additional countries receive tariff notices when talks stall.
  • Clarification on copper/pharma scope: The US may release more details on how the 50% copper and 20–200% pharma tariffs will be implemented.
  • China response: Signals from Beijing on retaliation or supply chain adjustments following the Vietnam transshipment clause. 

 

Get in touch 

Business Sweden has extensive experience in tariff scenario analyses, localisation strategies, and supplier evaluations. If you need support in assessing your supply chain or navigating the impact of these tariffs on your US operations, please contact Johan Karlberg or Peter Ekdahl.  

 
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