One after the other this summer, countries around the world began easing the restrictions that had been imposed to curb the spread of coronavirus. With signs of a resurgence of infections now on the horizon, the outlook for global trade is very uncertain. At the same time, the worst appears to be behind us.
Parts of the services sector are still running at half-speed, but the wheels of industry have started to churn. Both retail and industrial production have regained strength and confidence indicators such purchasing managers’ indices are on an upward trajectory. While the global economy is in a deep recession the recovery has, indeed, got underway.
If a return to full lockdown can be avoided over the course of this autumn, 40 per cent of the world’s countries are expected to have reclaimed 2019 GDP levels by the end of 2021. Around 80 per cent of all countries are expected to have bounced back to pre-crisis levels the following year.
Global GDP is expected to rebound to its pre-crisis level during the second half of 2021, largely thanks to a strong recovery in Asia and to some extent in North America. However, the consensus is that the larger European economies will not be back at pre-crisis levels until well into 2022, and this has consequences for Swedish exports.
In short, the recovery looks very fragile and there is no doubt that a major second wave of outbreaks would risk having lasting negative effects on the global economy.
In this edition of the Global Economic Outlook report we take stock of unfolding developments and present a baseline forecast along with two alternative recovery scenarios in key regions for Swedish exports.
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About the analysis
Business Sweden’s semi-annual global economic outlook including a review of current developments in important Swedish export markets as well as forecasts for Swedish exports and country and regional economic growth.
The outlook includes a review of recent developments in the Swedish economy, but its main focus is the macroeconomic performance of the three key regions for Swedish exports: Europe, Asia and North America. Major Swedish export markets like Germany, the US and China are thoroughly analysed. An appendix provides the most recent hard data for 34 markets.