First 100 days and a new competitive landscape

Current tariff overview:

The first 100 days: Fast action, big Shifts

President Trump has moved aggressively in his first 100 days of his second term, issuing over 140 executive actions — nearly as many as President Biden did in his full term. Congress has passed just five laws in the same period, reflecting the president’s unilateral control of the policy agenda.

Among the most consequential actions: a sweeping new tariff regime, restructured foreign aid, and deeper executive influence over regulatory agencies. For businesses, the pace and scale of these changes signal more disruption ahead — and a need for fast, informed response.

Tariffs and consumer impact: Acknowledged, but downplayed

While the administration continues to assert that China will bear the brunt of the tariff war, President Trump has acknowledged that US consumers may face higher prices and fewer options. Although his comments downplay the impact and recession risks, consumer sentiment suggests growing concern.

• US consumer confidence dropped in April to its lowest level since May 2020.
•  GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q1, largely due to preemptive import surges.
• Despite this, the job market remains stable, with 177,000 jobs added in April and unemployment steady at 4.2%.

End of de minimis for China: A turning point for e-commerce
As of Friday, 2 May, the US officially ended de minimis treatment for low-value imports from China and Hong Kong. This means: 

• Goods from China that previously fell under the de minimis rules are now subject to a 120% levy (or flat fee) or the 145% baseline tariff depending on the shipping method.
• Swedish companies using Chinese fulfilment partners (e.g., for e-commerce) will face higher costs and more complex compliance procedures.
• However, shipments directly from Europe still qualify for the USD 800 exemption, creating a competitive edge for firms sourcing and shipping outside China. 

Port volumes drop as retailers pull back – but opportunities emerge 
The Port of Los Angeles expects incoming cargo volume to fall by over 35% this week compared to last year, largely due to suspended shipments from China. Retailers are pausing orders, and some shipping lines are rerouting via Southeast Asia.

• China accounts for ~45% of the port’s activity; the sharp drop signals broad disruption in logistics and retail supply chains.
• Transport job cuts and delayed inventory restocking could follow, increasing pressure as US inventory may decrease in the coming weeks.

A window of opportunity for Swedish exporters 
As tariffs on Chinese goods rise and logistics disruptions grow, US retailers are re-evaluating their sourcing strategies. For Swedish exporters not reliant on China, this creates a timely opportunity. Companies shipping directly from Europe continue to benefit from the USD 800 de minimis exemption, giving them a cost and compliance advantage. 

Simultaneously, exporters dependent on Chinese-produced goods may face challenges as new tariffs take effect, underscoring the need to de-risk and assess supply chains.

What to watch next week

Retailers may start adjusting pricing and inventory strategies as reduced shipments from China affect supply chains and consumer spending. The public comment period for the Section 232 investigations into semiconductors and pharmaceuticals closes on 7 May, with follow-up measures expected. Meanwhile, further details may emerge on the proposed 100% tariff on foreign films, signalling a potential expansion of tariffs to services and digital content.

Get in touch

Business Sweden has extensive experience in tariff scenario analyses, localisation evaluations, and supplier assessments. If you need support in assessing your supply chain or navigating the impact of these tariffs on your U.S. operations, please contact Johan Karlberg. or Peter Ekdahl.

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