Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index (EMI) fell back slightly in the third quarter of 2026 but remains above both the 50-mark and the historical average. EMI declined by 2.9 points to 56.1 in the third quarter, from 59.0 the previous quarter.
This indicates that export managers still maintain a clearly positive outlook despite somewhat weaker expectations for the future.
The EMI forecast subindex fell by 8.2 points to 55.8, from 64.0. Meanwhile, the companies’ views of current export performance improved as the EMI current subindex rose by 2.4 points to 56.4 – the highest recorded level since the fourth quarter of 2022.
“Sentiment is cooling from a high level, but EMI still signals strong optimism among Swedish export companies,” says Lena Sellgren, Chief Economist at Business Sweden.
Views on export sales weakened somewhat but remain above the historical average. Assessments of the current profitability of export sales improved markedly.
The most notable change in the third quarter survey was an unexpected sharp decline in the index for expected export demand from Asia, which fell by 15.4 points to 46.5. The picture is considerably more positive in several other key markets, particularly in Europe and North America.
Download the report for a full overview of the survey results.
The next Export Managers’ Index will be published on 5 November 2026.
Export manager's index Q3 2026
About the analysis
Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a quarterly index showing the current mood of Swedish exporting companies as well as their near-future outlook for exports to the regions of the world.
The index is a measure of companies’ perceived export demand in the market, where a level above 50 indicates market expansion and a level below 50 indicates market contraction. The index can be split into subindices for current and forecast export demand, and contains information on export sales, expected regional demand and perceived order stock.
The survey is conducted by Statistics Sweden (SCB). Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of the development of Sweden’s economy.
Publishing dates 2026
Below are the Swedish publishing dates for the EMI report. The English version is available on the website a few days later.
7 May: EMI Q2
27 August: EMI Q3
5 November: EMI Q4
Subscribe to our Global Analysis reports here.
Previous analyses
