The upturn in the first quarter was driven mainly by companies’ expectations for the coming three months. EMI forecast rose clearly to 55.9 – the highest level since the second quarter of 2024 – while the current index edged down slightly to 45.7. This indicates that companies continue to experience a weak situation today, which is also reflected in export order stocks that continued to decline and reached their lowest level since early 2024.
At the same time, the outlook for the coming months is significantly brighter. Expected export demand increased markedly across several regions: Western Europe rose to 59.8 and Central and Eastern Europe to 56.2, both well above their historical averages. The Middle East, Türkiye and Africa also recorded a strong rise, reaching 60.1. In contrast, Asia and Oceania moved in the opposite direction, falling by 9.5 points to 45.0 and dropping below the 50‑mark for the first time since 2024.
Although geopolitical uncertainty remains, it no longer appears to weigh on sentiment to the same extent as before. Companies are optimistic about export sales, demand, and profitability over the coming quarter. The particularly strong outlook in Europe – which accounts for 73 per cent of Sweden’s goods exports – contributes to a more positive view of the start of the export year 2026.
Download the full report for a complete overview of the results and analysis.
The next Export Managers’ Index will be published on 7 May 2026.
https://cdnbuschartsprod.azureedge.net/emiExport manager's index Q1 2026
About the analysis
Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a quarterly index showing the current mood of Swedish exporting companies as well as their near-future outlook for exports to the regions of the world.
The index is a measure of companies’ perceived export demand in the market, where a level above 50 indicates market expansion and a level below 50 indicates market contraction. The index can be split into subindices for current and forecast export demand, and contains information on export sales, expected regional demand and perceived order stock.
The survey is conducted by Statistics Sweden (SCB). Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of the development of Sweden’s economy.
Publishing dates 2026
Below are the Swedish publishing dates for the EMI report. The English version is available on the website a few days later.
7 May: EMI Q2
27 August: EMI Q3
5 November: EMI Q4
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