Global trade and industrial production both held up last year despite President Trump’s tariff shock, rising geopolitical tensions and volatile trade policies. Global growth hit 3 per cent, in line with the average for the prepandemic period of 2015-2019.
The conflict in the Middle East, a more uncertain trade policy landscape and intensifying global competition have nevertheless made conditions more challenging for Swedish exports.
“Companies can manage trade barriers by adjusting their sourcing, logistics and pricing. But energy prices have a direct impact on companies’ costs, households’ purchasing power and demand in export markets,” explains Lena Sellgren, Chief Economist at Business Sweden.
In this year’s first edition of Global Economic Outlook titled “Dark clouds over the world economy”, Business Sweden presents a main scenario that assumes a shortlived war in the Middle East, dampening global growth to 2.7 per cent in 2026, followed by an alternative scenario in which the conflict is prolonged.
Despite the risk of an energy crisis and broader disruptions, the report concludes that the baseline for the global economy remains strong. Sweden’s economy is showing a clear recovery. Investments in Europe are gaining momentum – particularly in Germany – while continued fiscal support is helping to sustain activity in the US economy.
Against the backdrop of China’s new fiveyear plan, which places greater emphasis on industrial upgrades, technology and export capacity, sharpening Sweden’s value proposition is now more important than ever.
Download the report for a full overview of global economic developments with indepth analysis of key markets for Swedish exports.
Subscribe to our Global Analysis reports here.
Publication dates 2026
26 March
24 September
