Recent US trade policy developments signal a shift from temporary and broad-based tariffs towards more permanent and targeted measures. After the Supreme Court rejected the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a basis for broad emergency tariffs, the administration moved to Section 122 as a temporary bridge. With Section 122 tariffs approaching the end of their 150-day time limit, the administration has shifted its focus to new Section 301 investigations. Once concluded, these investigations can provide a more durable framework for country-specific tariff
In addition, new proclamations are expanding product exposure to Section 232 and sector-based tariffs. At the same time, targeted relief for certain product categories such as agricultural equipment and industrial machinery, may reduce tariff exposure for some importers.
Swedish companies exporting to or operating in the US will see tariff exposure increasingly depend on the transition to new legal authorities. It will also be shaped by the timing of upcoming court decisions, investigations, and negotiations.
Current tariff overview
| Tariff instrument | Status | Indicative rate / exposure | Scope | Key implication for Swedish companies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Section 122 | Legally challenged, but still in place during appeal 10 per cent global tariff | Temporary balance-of-payments-based tariff measure, formally limited to 150 days and capped at 15 per cent | Tariffs remain in place during appeal; refund opportunities remain uncertain and likely limited to plaintiffs involved in the US Court of International Trade lawsuit | The current 10% tariff remains active but unstable; businesses must evaluate individual legal risks regarding import refunds. |
| Section 301 | Two new investigations act as the main replacement tool for IEEPA; only one has been concluded | Proposed 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent additional duties for many economies, subject to comments and public hearings | The initial investigation covers country-based remedies tied to forced labour The proposed 10 per cent EU tariff would apply to companies importing Swedish-origin products | Swedish exporters facing the 10% EU tariff risk a significant drop in competitiveness in the US market. |
| Section 232 | Active and expanding, with selective relief | 15 per cent, 25 per cent, or 50 per cent depending on product and category | Recent updates include: heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), agricultural equipment, industrial machinery and certain metal derivatives | Product classification, origin, and USMCA/EU treatment are increasingly playing a role in final tariff exposure |
| Section 232 investigations | Ongoing / pending outcomes | Not yet final | Medtech, personal protective equipment (PPE), medical consumables, robotics, and industrial machinery | Potential future tariff expansion into sectors with strong Swedish export relevance |
Section 122 tariffs face legal challenge, but immediate relief is uncertain
The US Court of International Trade (CIT) has ruled that the 10 per cent global tariffs imposed under Section 122 were not authorised under the statute. Private importers sued the administration, arguing that the 10 per cent global import surcharge exceeded the President’s authority. The government appealed the ruling and, for now, the tariffs continue to be collected while the appeal is pending. Any refunds are currently limited to the small group of plaintiffs[SB14.1], and broader refund opportunities will depend on the final legal outcome and subsequent administrative guidance.
However, the Section 122 tariffs are set to expire on 24 July and will likely be replaced by tariffs under Section 301.
Section 301 emerges as the primary country-specific tariff tool
Section 301 investigations have become more important as a potential basis for long-term country-specific tariff measures. In March, two investigations were launched. One targeted forced labour, and the other structural excess capacity. The EU is under investigation in both. Only the forced labour investigation has concluded, while the structural excess capacity investigation is still ongoing.
Current proposals suggest 10 per cent to 12.5 per cent on imports from a broad set of countries, including the EU, linked to the investigation on forced labour regulations. The EU rate would be 10 per cent under this authority, implying no major near-term change in tariff exposure. However, the total duty exposure may increase following the conclusion of the second investigation related to structural excess capacity.
The Section 301 investigation process follows a formal structure, including public comment periods and hearings. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is moving forward with this process, with stakeholder input due 6 July, ahead of public hearings scheduled for 7 July. Although no formal deadline has been identified, the timeline suggests that finalisation should be done before the temporary Section 122 tariffs expire on 24 July.
Section 232 Adjustments Provide Targeted Relief
A new Section 232 proclamation on 1 June reduced tariffs for certain agricultural equipment, HVAC systems, and mobile industrial machinery. The reduction lowers rates from 25 per cent to 15 per cent through 2027. The measures also provide preferential treatment for United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant goods and imports from select partner countries, including the EU. For imports from the European Union, the maximum applicable tariff will not exceed 15per cent. This means that, for covered products, Section 232 tariffs and most-favoured nation (MFN) tariffs cannot stack for a total duty rate over 15 per cent.
The same proclamation also expands the scope of derivative products subject to Section 232 tariffs, affecting additional Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) codes such as aluminium lithographic plates and steel racks. For applicable HTS codes and further details, read here. Customs enforcement becomes a larger part of tariff risk
In addition to tariff changes, a new executive order from 3 June signals stricter requirements for importers and customs intermediaries. The order directs US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the Department of Homeland Security to review importer-of-record rules, strengthen bonding and asset requirements, increase disclosure obligations, and enhance vetting of importers, customs brokers, freight forwarders, and other parties involved in import transactions. For companies, this will likely mean a larger administrative burden and tariff exposure will increasingly be linked to documentation quality and customs compliance.
In the short term, we recommend Swedish companies to:
PLAN AND ACT
- Ahead of the summer break, as several decisive actions may be taken during the summer, ensure you have clear scenario-based plans in place.
- Update cost models based on recent policy changes (including Section 232 expansion and reductions) and assess the impact on landed costs, margins, and US pricing.
- Consider committing additional internal resources or expanding external support to meet new, stricter customs requirements.
- Clarify how tariff costs are shared and allocated between exporters, importers, distributors, and customers in contracts, especially in relation to future changes.
- In the long term, assess where to place major value-adding processes and country of origin, and how that impacts landed costs and overall competitiveness.
MONITOR
- Follow Section 301 investigations and provide input by 6 July to be aware of and influence final duty exposure.
- Evaluate the relevance of applying for IEEPA tariff refunds – if not already done.
- Preserve import documentation and track importer-of-record status, entry data, liquidation timelines, and duty payments in case refund opportunities arise from ongoing Section 122 litigation.
What to Watch This Summer
Looking ahead, several court timelines, policy deadlines, and trade discussions could affect how current and proposed tariff measures are applied. For Swedish companies exporting to or operating in the US, these milestones are important to track because they may influence tariff exposure, product coverage, and potential opportunities to engage before measures are finalised.
| Date / milestone | Issue | Why it matters | Impact Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 July 2026 | EU–US trade negotiations | A key milestone for whether existing tariff caps and negotiated treatment remain stable | Critical |
| 6 July 2026 | Section 301 forced labour investigation comment deadline | Last opportunity for stakeholders to influence the proposed forced labour-related tariff measures | High |
| 7 July 2026 | Section 301 forced labour investigation public hearing | May shape final tariff scope, exclusions, and country duty rates | High |
| 24 July 2026 | Section 122 tariff period expires | Formal endpoint of the current 150-day measure and may lead to the introduction of new Section 301 tariffs | Critical |
| Coming weeks and months | Section 232 investigations into medtech, PPE, medical consumables, robotics, and industrial machinery | Potential expansion of tariffs into sectors with significant Swedish export relevance | Medium |
Get in touch
To broaden support, Business Sweden has launched the US–Sweden Tariff Intelligence and Advisory, which offers:
- Tracking tariff updates and providing implementation tools
- Enabling peer learning via virtual sessions and expert-led seminars
- Connecting you with vetted customs brokers and third-party logistics partners
Business Sweden has extensive experience in tariff scenario analysis, localisation strategies, and supplier evaluations. If you need support in assessing your supply chain or navigating the impact of these tariffs on your US operations, or are interested in joining the US–Sweden Tariff Intelligence and Advisory, please contact Johan Karlberg or Vlad Månsson.
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